Recently we’ve seen a slight warming in our Cold War–era diplomatic relations with Cuba. As these dramatic events continue to play out, many are wondering how the new relationship will affect the cigar market in the United States. My simple response is—it won’t. As relations with Cuba normalize, access to Cuban cigars by U.S. citizens undoubtedly will improve. The new rules will allow travelers to the island to return to the U.S. with cigars. However, they will be subjected to a limit in value of $100.

Unfortunately, Cuban cigars can be expensive, which means most cigar-smoking travelers will return with five or ten cigars. Even that small number cannot legally be resold or placed in a cigar store. It’s difficult to see how this situation will have any impact on the U.S. cigar market.

Of course, these conditions could change. For the moment, let’s assume that accommodations are worked out among the different factions of our government and far-reaching agreements are enacted with the Cuban leadership. In that case, it is possible and perhaps even probable that future visits to Cuba will be no more difficult for U.S. citizens than taking a vacation to Jamaica or the Dominican Republic is today. The number of tourists returning with Cuban cigars would grow dramatically.

Taking this hypothetical situation a step further, we can imagine a new reality where Cuban cigar companies are allowed to ship much of their product directly to the U.S. Even then, the impact and influence of those cigars—no matter the source—will be minimal. That is chiefly due to a poorly kept secret among those who have recently smoked Cuban cigars—they are overhyped and often not very good…

An excerpt from the August-September 2015 issue.